2010-04-20

Unintended Consequences

The Law of Unintended Consequences is an adage or idiom that can be stated as follows:

'Any intervention in a complex system may or may not have the intended result, but will inevitably create unanticipated and often undesirable outcomes'. 

In common usage, it is a wry or humorous expression warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control the world around them.


Here is an example:  A dad would like to teach his little daughter and son to go to the toilet instead of using the diaper.  In order to encourage the elder daughter to go to toilet by herself, he gives her some chocolates as an incentive for doing it correctly and successfully.  And the result is:  Yes, the daughter quits the diaper but go to toilet much more often than she ever did.

Then, the dad would like to push a step further.  In order to encourage his daughter to support and help others, he gives both his daughter and son some chocolates whenever the daughter helps her younger brother to go to toilet correctly and successfully.  And the result is: the sister tries to force her brother to drink water all the time.

還有一例:非洲肯雅北部土地公有,牛隻方為私產。人們追逐私利,爭相飼養牛隻放牧,以致草原日漸消失,大片土地沙漠化,既打擊耕作復影響氣候。有見及此,挪威政府協助牧民轉業,成立合作社、斥資購置漁船、傳授捕魚之道。皇天不負有心人,轉業牧民收入大增。沙漠化有望扭轉乎?

沒有!反而變本加厲:轉業牧民富了起來,紛紛置業 (增購牛隻) 令草原加快消失。

做好事亦得從根本上做起乎?不土地私有化,讓牧民珍惜草原又何以扭轉沙漠化之勢?戴着有色眼鏡看私產,遺禍何其大也!
.

No comments:

Post a Comment